The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
Volume 139, Issue 4 , Pages 835-840 , April 2010

A formidable task: Population analysis predicts a deficit of 2000 cardiothoracic surgeons by 2030

  • Thomas E. Williams Jr., MD, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Department of Surgery, The Ohio State University School of Medicine, Columbus, Ohio
    • Corresponding Author InformationAddress for reprints: Thomas E. Williams, Jr, MD, PhD, Doan Hall, Room N-827, The Ohio State University Hospital, 410 West Tenth Ave, Columbus, OH 43210.
  • ,
  • Benjamin Sun, MD

      Affiliations

    • Department of Surgery, The Ohio State University School of Medicine, Columbus, Ohio
  • ,
  • Patrick Ross Jr., MD, PhD

      Affiliations

    • Department of Surgery, The Ohio State University School of Medicine, Columbus, Ohio
  • ,
  • Andrew M. Thomas, MD, MBA

      Affiliations

    • Department of Medicine, The Ohio State University School of Medicine, Columbus, Ohio

Received 1 May 2009 ,Accepted 3 December 2009.

References 

  1. USA in 2050: Population Projected Over Five Decades. USA Today. March 18, 2004;
  2. Blackwell RD, Williams TE, Ayers A. The crisis of the direct costs of health care. In: Consumer Driven Health Care. Ashland, OH: Book Publishing Associates; 2005;p. 89–96
  3. Williams TE, Satiani B, Ellison EC. The Coming Shortage of Surgeons. Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger; 2009;28
  4. Physician Supply and Demand: Projections to 2020 US Department of Health and Human Services Health Resources and Services Administration Bureau of Health Professions October 2006. Health Resources and Services Administration, Department of Health & Human Services. Physician Supply Projection, Tables 11 and 12. Available at: ftp://ftp.hrsa.gov/bhpr/workforce/PhysicianForecastingPaperfinal.pdf. Accessed April 13, 2009.
  5. The Balanced Budget Act of 1997: a current look at its impact on patients and providers. Statement of Gail R. Wilensky, Chair Medicare Payment Advisory Commission. Before the Subcommittee on Health and Environment, Committee on Commerce, US House of Representatives, July 19, 2000. Available at: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/∼jasker/BBA1.pdf. Accessed April 2, 2009.
  6. Williams TE, Ellison EC. Population analysis predicts a future critical shortage of general surgeons. Surgery. 2008;144:548–556
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  10. Association of American Medical Colleges. The State of the Physician Workforce: with Medical Expansion Underway, What's Next? Edward Salsberg. Presented November 2, 2008, San Antonio, Texas.
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  13. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Shortage of New Heart Surgeons Predicted. Press Release. August 6, 2002;
  14. Shemin RJ, Dziuban SW, Kaiser LR, et al. Thoracic surgery workforce: snapshot at the end of the twentieth century and implications for the new millennium. Ann Thorac Surg. 2002;73:2014–2032
  15. Baumgartner WA. Cardiothoracic surgery: a specialty in transition—good to great?. Ann Thorac Surg. 2003;75:1685–1692
  16. Grover FL. The bright future of cardiothoracic surgery in the era of changing health care delivery: an update. Ann Thorac Surg. 2008;85:8–24
  17. Dunnington G, Pelletier MP. The future of cardiac surgery training programs. Ann Thorac Surg. 2006;81:1179–1180
  18. Gott VL, Patel ND, Yang SC, Baumgartner WA. Attracting outstanding students (premedical and medical) to a career in cardiothoracic surgery. Ann Thorac Surg. 2006;82:1–3
  19. Johnson JA. Clinical instructor housestaff stipend level fiscal year 2008, July 2007– June 2008. The Ohio State University, Department of Surgery.
  20. The New York Job Source. Sullivan and Cromwell. Available at: http://nyjobsource.com/sullivancromwell.html. Accessed April 2, 2009.
  21. Dorsey ER, Jarjoura D, Rutecki GW. Influence of controllable lifestyle on recent trends in specialty choice by US medical students. JAMA. 2003;290:1173–1178
  22. Steinbrook R. Medical student debt—is there a limit. N Engl J Med. 2008;359:2629–2632
  23. Merritt, Hawkins, and Associates. 2008 Survey of Final Year Medical Residents. Available at: http://www.merritthawkins.com/pdf/2008-mha-survey-medical-residents.pdf. Accessed April 13, 2009.
  24. Association of American Medical Colleges. Help Wanted: More U.S. Doctors. Projections Indicate America Will Face Shortage of M.D. by 2020. Available at: http://aamc.org/workforce/helpwanted. Accessed April 13, 2009.

 Disclosures: None.

 This work was supported by a grant from the Columbus Medical Association Foundation.

PII: S0022-5223(09)01598-0

doi: 10.1016/j.jtcvs.2009.12.004

The Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery
Volume 139, Issue 4 , Pages 835-840 , April 2010